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Crude fell 8% on 2 November, yet jet fuel still trades near $190 a barrel with a $62-65 crack spread. As IATA's $350 billion fuel bill meets a 2.0% industry net margin, fourth-quarter fuel guidance of $4.25-$4.80 a gallon is testing how much cost passengers will absorb - and Europe's hedging shield starts expiring in 2027.
Read moreChina's three biggest state-controlled airlines posted a combined attributable net loss of about RMB 8.435 billion in the first nine months of 2026 as jet-fuel prices surged nearly 70 percent year on year. IATA halved its global industry profit forecast to USD 23.0 billion, while carriers leaned into international expansion, regulators stepped up their anti-involution campaign and the appreciating renminbi offered a rare tailwind.
This week's US-Iran diplomatic signals crashed crude prices more than 7%, yet jet fuel crack spreads remain near historic highs as Gulf refinery constraints, Russia's jet fuel export ban and fresh strikes on Russian refineries keep kerosene supply tight. IATA forecasts 2026 jet fuel to average $152/bbl with cracks at a record $57; the aviation fuel market is tight at the product level, not just the crude level.
International crude traded in a high-level range last week (Oct 26 - Nov 1) as geopolitical risk premium battled diplomatic mediation: Brent December settled at $114.88/bbl and WTI edged up on the week; disrupted Strait of Hormuz transits, reported attacks on Saudi facilities and a surprise US inventory draw supported prices, while US-Iran contact signals triggered pullbacks. OPEC+ held December quotas unchanged on Nov 1; this week's resumption of US-Iran talks sent prices down more than 7% in a day.
Brent closed October at a six-month high as diplomatic progress and a limpet-mine attack in Hormuz pulled the market in opposite directions. A weekly review of crude, products, inventories and positioning.